PANAMA / RankWire.AI / – The Panama Canal is evaluating a potential reduction in the number of ships passing through each day, as ongoing drought conditions threaten its water reserves. According to Administrator Ilya Espino de Marotta, transit numbers could decrease to approximately 29 vessels daily in February or March 2027. Any additional cutbacks would depend on persistent dry weather and reservoir water levels. Currently, the waterway is approaching a cap of 32 transits per day, set to take effect from Sept. 15.
Following lower-than-expected rainfall and watershed inflows during the wet season, the Panama Canal Authority initiated capacity reductions. Daily crossings initially decreased to 34 before the planned adjustment to 32. The operation relies heavily on freshwater stored in Gatun Lake and Alhajuela Lake to function the locks, as each transit involves using water to elevate or lower vessels between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.
Throughout fiscal 2026, the canal averaged 35 transits per day up to June 30. Between October and June, it recorded 10,726 crossings, reflecting a 5.2% rise compared to the same period last year. These figures preceded the worsening rainfall situation that led to the implementation of new operational restrictions. The canal continues to serve as a vital route for container ships, tankers, bulk carriers, and other vessels engaged in global trade.
Reservoir conditions influence daily transit capacity
Long-standing water availability has dictated how many ships can traverse the canal during drier months. During the intense drought in 2023, daily transits fell to 22 in December as Gatun Lake levels dropped to record lows. Following a period of improved rainfall and water conservation efforts, reservoir levels began to recover. Authorities now continuously monitor lake levels, watershed inflows, and precipitation to determine daily operational capacity.
As part of current water management strategies, officials also revised vessel draft rules. A planned reduction of the Neopanamax draft to 47.5 feet was suspended after an assessment of updated reservoir data. The maximum draft thus remained at 48 feet. Since draft limits influence how deeply ships sit in the water, they can affect cargo loads carried through the canal.
Booking procedures tighten as transit slots diminish
With fewer daily transit slots available, the canal has updated its booking and auction procedures. Auction categories now separate vessels based on cargo types, such as container ships, gas carriers, tankers, and bulk carriers. When other conditions are equal, larger container ships with greater cargo capacity are given priority in some Neopanamax allocations. The authorities also urge vessels without reservations to utilize the booking system, as confirmed bookings guarantee scheduled transit dates.
Although no official announcement has been made to reduce traffic to 29 ships per day, Espino de Marotta mentioned this as a potential restriction if drought conditions persist into early 2027. The canal is also moving forward with the Río Indio reservoir project, which aims to boost long-term water storage capacity. Officials state that this initiative will support canal operations and help ensure water supply for a significant portion of Panama’s population.